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Russia -Turkey - Israel: what's going on?

For all those who'd like to discuss in English
Toklè
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Re:Turquie: Coup d'etat en cours

Message par Toklè » juil. 28, 16 1:31 am

Israeli Rush to Save Secret Pact with Turkey

Truth of Turkish attack on Israeli tourist to be buried by Dore Gold

Not to be left behind the obsequious Europeans, the Israelis are rushing for their own Faustian pact with the Islamists of Turkey. In the immediate aftermath of the suicide terrorist attack in Istanbul on March 19th, which left five persons dead and scores injured, Dore Gold, Director-General of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign rushed to Istanbul. Why? is the question.

On the face of it, this rush to Turkey, before hardly any information about the nature of last week’s terrorist attack had emerged, sounded odd. Dore Gold was not close by, in Israel, at the time of the explosion.
He was in far away America to attend the American Israel Political Action Committee’s (AIPAC) "Annual Policy Conference 2016". This annual event is considered the most important meeting of pro-Israeli, American-Jewish groups in the US. Moreover, unlike all recent American Administrations, the Obama Administration has not been considered pro- Israeli enough. And the bad chemistry between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama has fuelled numerous mini- crises between Jerusalem and Washington during the Obama presidency, climaxing with the Israel’s total opposition to the American-Iranian nuclear deal.

Finally, 2016 is a presidential year in the US, and Israel is extremely worried that Donald Trump may win the Republican nomination and prevail over Israel's preferred choice, Hillary Clinton, who is expected to be the Democratic Party nominee, and all the Republican Party runners except for Trump have been invite to speak to the AIPAC conference.

Dore Gold, born in the US, is an influential Israeli and a political figure in his own right. An academic by US training – Hartford Yeshiva, Columbia University -- he was long associated with the Israeli right (Ariel Sharon). Netanyahu appointed him Director General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2015.

Most relevant, and the reason for his rush to Istanbul, is his concern that the bombing assassination of the Israeli tourists may derail for good Gold’s long-sought attempt at reconciliation with Turkey. In Israel he has been an ardent advocate of an axis between the two countries; he has been the architect of recent moves and secret negotiations with the Islamist regime of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for "happy days again" between Jerusalem and Ankara.

Reparations of $20 million were promised. For more on the Gold secrets, read this.
What is interesting and revealing is that whereas the initial reporting and official Turkish leaks to the press characterised the Saturday, March 20, attack as another Kurdish terrorist attack and that the victims were "ordinary" Turks, the Israelis knew better. They knew the victims were foreigners, mostly Israeli tourists -- and that the perpetrators were not Kurdish but Turkish Islamists. We all know now that this is the case. And that this is the second time recently that tourists have been attacked in Istanbul. Except that this time they got a bonus. They got the hated Israelis. By accident?

Noone wants to admit or even speculate that this was a deliberate attack targeting Israelis. So an official story was concocted- a bread and butter Turkish intelligence tale - that the terrorist was planning to bomb a nearby government building, and that he lost his cool and "detonated" himself, "off" his target. Moreover, he just happened to have done so "accidentally" in the midst of a crowd of tourists, and that by "chance" they happened to be Israelis. Now if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you at a giveaway price, as the Americans are fond of saying.

Significantly, while Secretary General Gold took the first flight from the US to Istanbul - probably a Turkish Airlines one, since El Al is not allowed by the Turks to fly there- Netanyahu said he has no evidence that the Israelis were targeted deliberately by Islamists. It was their tough luck, according to the prime minister. Maybe it was because they violated the Sabbath. Who knows.

So Netanyahu wishes. And so does Gold rushing to Istanbul to save the day and have his chance to lie prostrate before the Great Turk and obtain his "generous cooperation ", this time in the fight against terrorism, much like his European cousins have been doing lately. And all the while Erdogan- NATO's Hitler loving ally by his own admission- is implementing genocidal policies against the Kurds of Turkey - "his own people" as NATO might have said, but doesn't.

http://russia-insider.com/en/israeli-ru ... ey/ri13478



Toklè
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Re:Turquie: Coup d'etat en cours

Message par Toklè » juil. 28, 16 1:35 am

Russia Remains Determined To Stop Israel-Turkey Pipeline Deal

PS: Ceci c etait avant le pardon de Erdogan á Putin!, maintenant, Gazprom est incorporé!

Originally appeared at Oil Price

It has been six years since the Israeli raid on the Mavi Marmara ship that was aiming to reach the Gaza coast in May 2010.

In the wake of the Mavi Marmara crisis, Turkey and Israel relations rapidly worsened; both countries withdrew their ambassadors and cut diplomatic ties. Turkey's downing of a Russian jet along the Syrian border on November 24, 2015 has forced Ankara to adjust its foreign policy and address its energy security issues. The crisis between Turkey and Russia firmly highlighted the dependence of Turkey on Russian energy resources.
To reduce that dependence, Ankara began to seek alternative energy suppliers and new routes. Turkey turned to Israel, hoping to once again normalize relations between the two states. Erdogan now aims to build an East Mediterranean natural gas pipeline, which could transport natural gas supplies from Israel to Cyprus. In January 2016 he stated that “Israel is in need of a country like us in the region. We have to admit that we also need Israel.” Thus began a new chapter for Turkey-Israel relations.

Turkey and Israel are negotiating over several issues, including the lifting of the embargo on Gaza and ending the presence of Hamas in Turkey. One of the main disputes noted by President Erdogan involves Turkey’s offer to send a ship, anchored in Israel's Ashdod port, to provide electricity for Gaza. Another significant topic of negotiations is the Russian military presence in the East Mediterranean region. Ankara aims for the first transfer of Israeli gas to take place by 2020, but Russia’s aggressive foreign policy towards Turkey poses a significant challenge to the East Mediterranean pipeline.

Turkey not only wants to lift the embargo on Gaza, but also demands weapons from Israel as part of the normalization effort. The Turkish government needs high-tech weapons to fight PKK rebels in the southern regions of Turkey and to protect its border from ISIS rocket attacks. Russia, however, is fervently against this proposal and has threatened to sell modernized offensive weapons to both Syria and Iran in retaliation. Israel then asked Turkey to rescind its veto over Israeli activity within NATO, and permit Israel to open an office in NATO headquarters. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed on May 4th, 2016 that the decision to allow Israel to open the offices was enabled by Turkey adhering to this request. This represented yet another step towards Turkey’s reconciliation with Israel. Now the time has come for an agreement on energy ties between the two states.

The Cyprus problem, which remains far from a resolution, must be solved before any construction can begin on the East Mediterranean natural gas pipeline. According to reports, the forecast of Israeli natural gas production capacity for 2020-2021 is between 20-25 billion cubic meters (bcm) and will reach maximum capacity of 30 bcm in 2030. Considering Israel's export agreements with Jordan and Palestine, plus its domestic consumption volumes in 2020, Israel will only be able to export a maximum of 15 bcm of natural gas per year. This gas forecast is not sufficient for Turkey’s domestic needs. Nevertheless, Turkey and Israel remain determined to sign an agreement.

Israeli Minister of National Infrastructure, Energy, and Water Resources Yuval Steinitz said in an interview that Turkey wants to consume half of the quantity of gas in the Leviathan gas reservoir, starting in 2020. In the secondary stage, gas may be transported from Turkey to the rest of Europe. Israel alone does not have the capacity to sell gas to Europe via subsea pipelines. In other words, the Eastern Mediterranean natural gas pipeline can only be built if the pipeline carries gas from both Israel and Cyprus.

Aside from the economic issues, there is a huge geopolitical challenge facing a potential pipeline between Turkey and Israel: Russian military presence.


In conclusion, Israel has taken advantage of the negotiations with Turkey to open an office in NATO headquarters, to end Turkey's support of Hamas, and to normalize relations with Ankara. In reality, Israel has been using the unlikely potential of a natural gas pipeline in order to obtain concessions from Turkey. Concurrently, energy companies operating in Israeli fields arenegotiating with Egyptian and British gas companies to send gas from Israel to Egypt and then sell the gas as LNG. Furthermore, Israel and Russia are about to agree upon a modus operandi in the East Mediterranean area concerning weapons and natural gas deals. It appears that while Israel is aware of the fact that Russia will do everything in its power to prevent an East Mediterranean pipeline, Turkey remains oblivious.
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/r ... al/ri14465



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Re:Turquie: Coup d'etat en cours

Message par Toklè » juil. 28, 16 1:42 am

What Is Behind Turkey's Rapprochement Moves Towards Israel and Russia?

Finding itself semi-isolated Ankara is working on normalizing relations with, not one, but two estranged major powers in its region

This agreement is dictated on both sides by realpolitik, with Turkey's need for energy and Israel needing an export route for its gas

Turkey and Israel have agreed to bury their differences after a bitter dispute froze their relations for six years and have normal diplomatic relations, including ambassadors in each other’s capitals.

Given the long-standing public distaste of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Israel, and Turkish support for the people of Gaza, the news marks a massive policy turnaround. But it has been in the making for a while. To soften any shock, news of the deal – some pro-government papers are even using the word "reconciliation" – between Turkey and Israel was signalled well in advance of its announcement on Sunday evening. President Erdogan also phoned the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, on Sunday to give him advance news of the agreement.

News of negotiations between Turkey and Israel has in fact been emerging steadily since late last year, with reports that despite their differences, they had discovered that they needed each other as both regional and energy partners.

Unfinished business from the recent past is being finally got out of the way. Israel will pay Turkey $20 million as compensation to the families of 10 Turkish citizens who died in May 2010 when the Israeli army stormed an unarmed humanitarian convoy carrying relief supplies to Gaza. It has renewed its apology, first issued in 2013, for the attack. The payment of compensation, withheld until now, makes the apology substantial. It will also allow a 10,000-tonne shipload of humanitarian supplies from Turkey to unload at Gaza on Friday this week.

Both sides are portraying the agreement – which will be signed on Tuesday this week – as a victory of sorts. Turkey’s Prime Minister, Binali Yildirim, says that Turkey has secured the easing (though not the complete lifting) of the Israeli blockade on Gaza. Turkey is building homes and engaging in other projects to help the people of Gaza. Hamas officials will continue to operate from offices in Turkey.

However according to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Gaza blockade will continue, while Israel will now be able to strike an agreement with Turkey for the export of its newly discovered natural gas reserves to Europe via a pipeline. The two prime ministers issued details of the agreement simultaneously, perhaps in order to lessen domestic criticism in both countries.

Realpolitik

For this is an agreement dictated on both sides not by sentiment but by realpolitik – national self-interest. With memories of the events of 2010 and afterwards still fresh, it looks very vulnerable to any possible fresh flare up in Gaza. But for the countries making it, the agreement is solidly underpinned by practical advantages on both sides.

For Ankara, one benefit of the agreement with Israel is that it reduces Turkey’s regional isolation and the number of neighbours with whom it does not have diplomatic relations. Turkish-Israeli relations were always partly the product of the more important alliance both countries had with the United States and this is still part of the picture. US President Barack Obama has been pressing both states towards a reconciliation ever since 2010. In the spring of 2013 he succeeded in persuading Netanyahu to offer Turkey an apology, a move which led the way to an ice-breaking telephone call between the prime ministers of the two countries, the first step towards last weekend’s deal.

The most obvious loose thread in the arrangement is the future of Hamas, which until now has received strong Turkish backing but whose presence in Turkey will now be confined to conventional diplomatic activity. A reported recent secret meeting between the intelligence chiefs of Turkey and Israel is believed to have ensured that even if the Hamas office in Turkey remains open, there will be clear restrictions on what its officials do.

However the geopolitics of the Middle East has shifted in the last half decade and alliances which were once utterly unthinkable are now beginning to be talked about. Yahya Bostan, a journalist on the pro-AKP Daily Sabah newspaper, says that the deal may be the prelude to a new "alliance for stability" in the Middle East. It could even, Bostan hints, include Egypt if its present government is minded to join – a remarkable suggestion in view of the open unfriendliness which has prevailed between Ankara and Cairo in the three years since the overthrow of the Morsi administration.

The obvious main basis for the new Turkish-Israeli partnership is the export of Israeli natural gas. This too has been under discussion since last year and Berat Albayrak, the minister of energy and son-in-law of Erdogan, went on record last year saying that an energy deal with Israel would require a political one as well. Netanyahu now sees Turkey as the optimum route to export gas from its Tamar and Leviathan reserves, with a pipeline running across the country, carrying more to Europe.

Warming to Russia

Turkey has been looking for potential alternative suppliers of natural gas to take the place of the Russians, since relations were frozen following the downing of a Russian air force jet on the Syrian border on 24 November. Israeli gas would be a logical alternative, at least for some years.

However there are signs that Russia’s diplomatic and economic freeze against Turkey could also be about to lift statement of "regret" about the jet incident from Erdogan on Monday.

Though Russia seemed to have set its face firmly against future relations with Turkey – and banned all agricultural imports – there have been signs in the last few weeks that Moscow was responding slowly to indications from Turkey that it wanted to normalise relations.

The freeze in Turkish-Russian relations has not only hit Turkish food producers hard. Hotel bookings are said to be nearly 98 percent down and there has been uncertainty about future energy cooperation, including the construction of Turkey’s first nuclear power-plant at Akkuyu on the Mediterranean. Turkey’s media has continued to criticise Russian operations in Syria, but President Erdogan and Prime Minister Yildirim both made it clear that they wanted the restoration of relations.

The sticking point was a formal apology from President Erdogan for the shooting down of the Russian jet and the death of one of its pilots. According to Russian media sources, later confirmed by Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesperson for the Turkish president, it seems that Erdogan used a form of words in a private letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin asking relatives of the dead pilot to "excuse us". President Putin regards this as a sufficient apology - so normal relations look like being resumed.

If that does happen, one of Moscow's main moves is likely to be a continued guarantee of Russian natural gas supplies to Turkey - which in any case have so far not been interrupted. How far this would undermine a potential Turkish deal with Israel (by removing the need to buy additional gas) is unclear, but having come so far towards a deal with Israel neither Turkey nor the Israelis look likely to turn back easily.

http://russia-insider.com/en/what-behin ... ia/ri15317



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